Category Archives: Oliver Updates


13 common sense tips to help manage your finances

15

Nov 2018

13 common sense tips to help manage your finances

A few months ago Reserve Bank Governor Phillip Lowe provided four common sense points we should all keep in mind regarding borrowing to finance a home. (The Governor’s speech can be found here). I thought they made sense and so summarised them in a tweet to which someone replied that every checkout operator knows them. Which got me thinking that maybe many do know them,…

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Rising US interest rates, trade wars, the US midterm election results, etc – should investors be worried?

08

Nov 2018

Rising US interest rates, trade wars, the US midterm election results, etc – should investors be worried?

October was a bad month for shares with global shares losing 6.8% in local currency terms and Australian shares losing 6.1%. It’s possible that following top to bottom falls of 9% for global shares, 11% for Australian shares, 21% in emerging markets and 31% in Chinese shares we have now seen the low in the share market rout. Shares were due a bounce and from…

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Are shares expensive?

24

Oct 2018

Are shares expensive?

Introduction Some commentators claim shares are way overvalued and so a crash is inevitable. As always, it’s a lot more complicated, but given the current turbulence in share markets it’s worth having a look at whether share markets are expensive or not as a guide to how vulnerable we are to further falls. More broadly, valuation measures provide a guide to future return potential. Why…

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Boom turns to bust – falling Australian home prices. How far and for how long and what’s the impact on the economy?

18

Oct 2018

Boom turns to bust – falling Australian home prices. How far and for how long and what’s the impact on the economy?

Australian capital city home prices have fallen for 12 months in a row and are down 4% from their peak. Most of the weakness relates to the previous boom time cities of Sydney and Melbourne but prices are continuing to fall in Perth and Darwin. Source: CoreLogic, AMP Capital This begs the questions: how far will prices drop? and what will it mean for the…

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The pullback in shares – seven things investors need to keep in mind

12

Oct 2018

The pullback in shares – seven things investors need to keep in mind

Introduction Every so often shares go through rough patches. We saw this most recently around February on the back of US inflation and interest rate concerns and the start of US tariffs which saw US shares and global shares fall roughly 10% and Australian shares fall 6%. Shares mostly recovered – even getting through the seasonally weak months of August and September surprisingly well –…

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Successful investing despite 115 million worries and Truth Decay – how to turn down the noise

28

Sep 2018

Successful investing despite 115 million worries and Truth Decay – how to turn down the noise

"Information is not knowledge, knowledge is not wisdom – Frank Zappa (and maybe some others)" It may seem that the worry list for investors is bigger and more confusing than ever before. Some of this may relate to US President Trump’s disruptive and “open mouth” approach as highlighted by the “trade war” and his frequent and sometimes contradictory tweets. For example, on 24th July Trump…

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Seven lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for investors

12

Sep 2018

Seven lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for investors

The period August to October is a time for anniversaries of financial market crises – the 1929 share crash, the 1974 bear market low, the 1987 share crash, the Emerging market/LTCM crisis in 1998, and of course the worst of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. The GFC started in 2007 but it was the collapse of Lehman Brothers on 15 September 2008 and the…

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Five things you need to know about the Australian economy

06

Sep 2018

Five things you need to know about the Australian economy

For years now, many have told us that Australia is heading for an imminent recession. By contrast official forecasts have long been looking for several years of above trend growth. In the event neither has happened and we don’t see them happening anytime soon. Against this backdrop there are five things you should know about the Australian economy. First – the economy grew solidly over…

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Why the $A is likely to fall further and shorting it is good protection against things going wrong globally

22

Aug 2018

Why the $A is likely to fall further and shorting it is good protection against things going wrong globally

For the last two calendar years the Australian dollar has defied our expectations for weakness. But after hitting $US0.81 in January it’s been trending down as US interest rates fell below the Australian cash rate, the threat of a US-driven trade war increased and it recently broke below a short-term range around $US0.74 and fell as low as $US0.72 on fears of contagion to global…

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What happened to all the worries about rising inflation and bond yields? Goldilocks, tariffs, Turkey and other things

14

Aug 2018

What happened to all the worries about rising inflation and bond yields? Goldilocks, tariffs, Turkey and other things

Earlier this year the big fear was that inflation was going to surge led by the US and that this was going to drive aggressive interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and much higher bond yields, which in turn would pressure other asset classes. Such fears saw a significant correction in global share markets with US shares falling 10%, global shares falling 9%…

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