Category Archives: Oliver Updates


Why super and growth assets like shares really are long-term investments

14

Nov 2019

Why super and growth assets like shares really are long-term investments

Introduction After sharp share market falls when headlines scream about the billions wiped off the market the usual questions are: what caused the fall? what’s the outlook? and what does it mean for superannuation? The correct answer to the latter should be something like “nothing really, as super is a long-term investment and share market volatility is normal.” But that often sounds like marketing spin….

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Five reasons why I am not so fussed about the global outlook

07

Nov 2019

Five reasons why I am not so fussed about the global outlook

Bad meme   There is always someone telling us that there is some sort of economic/financial disaster coming our way. However, there does seem to be a higher level of hand wringing now about the global economic outlook than normal. These concerns basically go something like this: Global debt – both public and private – is at record levels relative to GDP and with public…

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More 21 great investment quotes

24

Oct 2019

More 21 great investment quotes

The world of investing can be confusing and scary at times. But fortunately, the basics of investing are timeless and some investors (often the best) have a knack of encapsulating these in a sentence or two that is insightful and easy to understand. In recent years I’ve written several insights highlighting investment quotes I find particularly useful. Here are some more. The market “Stock price…

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Has Australia really had three recessions in the last 28 years?

30

Sep 2019

Has Australia really had three recessions in the last 28 years?

The claim that Australia has gone 28 years without a recession since the early 1990s recession ended in 1991 has been subject to some criticism in recent times with the economy sliding into a “per capita recession” where economic growth has been below population growth. Some have latched on to a recent Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis analysis that noted the 28 year claim…

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Investment returns have been good, but they are likely to slow over the next five years

25

Sep 2019

Investment returns have been good, but they are likely to slow over the next five years

The past 10 years have seen pretty good returns for well-diversified investors. The median balanced growth superannuation fund returned 7.3% pa over the five years to July and 8.2% pa over 10 years and that’s after fees and taxes. This is impressive given that inflation has been around 2%.  Source: Mercer Investment Consulting, Morningstar, AMP Capital Shares and growth assets have literally climbed a wall…

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Will the world slip up on oil again? – after oil prices spike as attacks disrupt Saudi production

17

Sep 2019

Will the world slip up on oil again? – after oil prices spike as attacks disrupt Saudi production

Introduction World oil prices have spiked since last week following weekend drone attacks on oil production in Saudi Arabia. This has naturally raised questions about the threat to economic growth, particularly if oil prices spike further, flowing on to petrol prices.   Why the spike? Since last Friday world oil prices are up by around 13%. Tensions have been escalating in the Middle East for…

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Australian house prices back from the abyss – seven things you need to know about the Australian property market

11

Sep 2019

Australian house prices back from the abyss – seven things you need to know about the Australian property market

Introduction After the biggest fall in at least 40 years – with a 10.2% top to bottom fall between September 2017 and June this year – average capital city home prices have turned up again. I thought prices would fall further with a 15% top to bottom fall led by around 25% falls in Sydney and Melbourne. But the facts changed from May – with…

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Nine reasons why recession remains unlikely in Australia

05

Sep 2019

Nine reasons why recession remains unlikely in Australia

Australian economic growth has slowed to the weakest since the GFC. Talk of recession remains all the rage. And economists don’t have a great track record in predicting recessions globally – with an IMF study finding that of 153 recessions seen in 63 countries around the world between 1992 and 2014, economic forecasters only predicted five in April of the year before they started –…

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Negative rates, QE & other measures the RBA may deploy- why? will it work? what would it mean for investors?

28

Aug 2019

Negative rates, QE & other measures the RBA may deploy- why? will it work? what would it mean for investors?

Introduction Since the RBA started cutting interest rates again back in June and in the process taking them closer to zero there has been increasing debate that it will deploy so-called “unconventional monetary policy measures” such as negative interest rates and quantitative easing. This debate has hotted up in recent weeks after the escalation in the US-China trade war posing a rising threat to global…

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Plunging bond yields & weak share markets amidst talk of recession – what does it mean for investors?

20

Aug 2019

Plunging bond yields & weak share markets amidst talk of recession – what does it mean for investors?

Introduction Only last month share markets in the US and Australia were at record highs. But ever since President Trump ramped up the US-China trade war again at the start of August, financial markets have seen a significant increase in volatility. Share markets have had 6% or so falls from their highs to recent lows and bond yields have plunged to new record lows in…

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